# Three hard-thesis cards

**Pre-work 5 of 7 · Complete individually before the workshop**

Before the workshop: complete this sheet independently. Due 48 hours before Session 1; submit only the material you approve. This is preparation, not an agreed session output.

Participant / note owner: __________
Date: __________
Privacy: Private / not for synthesis

## Instructions

Write three beliefs that deserve testing, not automatic agreement. Each card needs evidence, counter-evidence and the smallest bounded test. A thesis can concern AI, talent, services, construction, geography, ownership or customer value.

## Fictional worked example — not Truffle facts

Fictional thesis: “Mid-sized service firms will pay for a faster onboarding workflow.” Why: two interviewees described costly delays (anecdotal, not demand proof). Could be wrong: they may prefer an internal workaround. Test: five buyer interviews and a manual pilot within two weeks, owned by Alex, capped at 8 hours. Pass signal: two buyers agree to a scoped paid pilot; otherwise revise the segment. No spending is approved by this example.

## Blank worksheet

### Thesis card 1

Belief / target customer or domain:
Why I believe it (evidence, source, date, confidence):
Counter-evidence / what could make it wrong:
Smallest test / owner / deadline / time and cost cap:
Success threshold / failure threshold / what result changes my mind:

[Your response]

### Thesis card 2

Belief / target customer or domain:
Why I believe it (evidence, source, date, confidence):
Counter-evidence / what could make it wrong:
Smallest test / owner / deadline / time and cost cap:
Success threshold / failure threshold / what result changes my mind:

[Your response]

### Thesis card 3

Belief / target customer or domain:
Why I believe it (evidence, source, date, confidence):
Counter-evidence / what could make it wrong:
Smallest test / owner / deadline / time and cost cap:
Success threshold / failure threshold / what result changes my mind:

[Your response]

### Priority and connections

Which thesis is most consequential? Which assumptions overlap? Which evidence is missing?

[Your response]